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Rethinking the future we want not the one that will befall us. We are in charge of our destiny.
重新思考未来,我们不希望会跌倒我们。 我们负责我们的命运。
Nowadays there are a lot of headlines saying things like: “AI to run a factory X or AI is going to replace human cooks in this country”.
如今,有很多头条新闻都说:“人工智能来经营X工厂或人工智能将取代这个国家的厨师”。
I strongly believe that we should stop and think before automating away everything there is. In the wise words of Richard Koch:
我坚信,在将所有内容自动化之前,我们应该停下来思考。 用理查德·科赫(Richard Koch)的睿智话语:
“The road to hell is paved with the pursuit of volume. Business is wasteful, because complexity and waste feed on each other, a simple business will always be better than a complex.”
“通向追求体积的道路通往地狱。 业务是浪费的,因为复杂性和浪费相互依存,简单的业务总是比复杂的业务要好。”
Do not follow the masses by implementing the latest hot tech, because you can be shooting yourselves in the foot without knowing out of the fear of missing out. Unless you are a giant in your industry like Google, Tesla or Facebook.
不要通过实施最新的热门技术来跟上群众,因为您可能会在不知所措的情况下自行射击。除非您是Google,Tesla或Facebook之类的行业巨头。
It’s enticing for businessman and managers to maximise profits — AI and Automation are words highly associated with those 2 words.
吸引商人和管理人员实现利润最大化的诱人手段-人工智能和自动化是与这两个词高度相关的词。
Instead of looking at ways to squeeze every penny from business, the biggest questions we should be asking are:
我们应该寻找的最大问题是,而不是寻找从企业中榨取每一分钱的方法:
- Are AI and Automation really the only best solution?
人工智能和自动化真的是唯一的最佳解决方案吗?
- How can we put humans-in-the-loop?
我们如何才能将人类置于循环之中?
As we have seen not only current AI is not where many speculate but it also cannot decide on everything even though it can surpass humans in a few tasks and in narrow.
正如我们所看到的,不仅当前的AI不在很多人的猜测中,即使它在某些任务和狭窄领域中可以超越人类,也无法决定一切。
Furthermore, the world’s human population is only tending to grow larger(thank you India and China), this increased growth will imply that more jobs will be needed so it would be both wise and beneficial to find a way to create symbiotic systems where humans and AI work together and not competing against each other.
此外,世界人口只会趋于增长(感谢印度和中国),这种增长意味着将需要更多的工作,因此找到一种在人类和人类之间建立共生系统的方式既明智又有益。人工智能共同努力,而不是相互竞争。
Although it’s out of the scope of this article I would like to mention that one possible way around is to find ways to implement ideas such as universal basic income.
尽管超出了本文的范围,但我想提及的一种可能的解决方法是找到实现诸如普遍基本收入之类的想法的方法。
关注错误的KPI( 关键绩效指标 ) (Focusing on the wrong KPI(Key Performance Indicator))
Image credits图片学分
Businesses can endanger both their existence and the customers by focusing on the wrong KPI for their business and believing they can automate away every section of their business in order to squeeze out every drop of performance.
通过专注于错误的业务关键绩效指标(KPI),并认为他们可以使业务的各个部分自动化以压榨每一个绩效下降,企业可以危害他们的生存和客户。
AI is still a fairly young technology although very famous it’s because of this spotlight on it that many companies are blindly adopting the technology that can be dangerous and deadly if not implemented in the right way. I’m not saying there is a risk-free technology, the risks are there and it’s understandable especially coming from industry-leading companies trying to push the boundaries of what’s possible instead of the many simply implementing the technology and hoping it improves your business overnight.
尽管AI非常著名,但它仍然是一个相当年轻的技术,这是因为AI的这一亮点是,许多公司盲目地采用了如果不正确实施就可能带来危险甚至致命的技术。 我并不是说有一种无风险的技术,存在风险,这是可以理解的,尤其是来自行业领先的公司,他们试图突破一切可能的界限,而不是仅仅简单地实施该技术并希望它能在一夜之间改善您的业务。
The goal should not be to replace humans with machines but to create a symbiotic system where both work in synergy — this is something big companies figured out a long time ago, while most companies are implementing AI to get rid of people and increasing their slice of the cake.
目标不应该是用机器代替人类,而是要创建一种共生的系统,使两者协同工作。这是大公司很久以前就已经意识到的事情,而大多数公司都在实施AI以摆脱人们的困扰并增加他们的份额蛋糕。
Let’s see some examples of how some companies are creating symbiotic AI systems using a framework called Humans-in-the-loop or Human-centered AI and thus tackling problems that troubled their industries for years.
让我们看一些示例,这些示例说明了一些公司如何使用称为“以人为本”或以人为中心的AI的框架创建共生AI系统,从而解决困扰其行业多年的问题。
航空工业 (Aviation industry)
空客的自主出租车起降项目 (Airbus’ Autonomous Taxi, Take-Off and Landing(ATTOL) Project)
Airbus空中客车
On the 16th of January of 2020 Airbus published an article entitled “Is Autonomy the future of aerial mobility?”, where they describe the new system that they testing dubbed ATTOL(Autonomous Taxi, Take-Off and Landing) although still under development and testing, it is a quite interesting system, it does what the name suggests, it can take-off and land on its own, using only minimal input from the pilot.
2020年1月16日,空中客车公司发表了题为“ 自主性是空中交通的未来 吗? 在这里,他们描述了他们正在测试的称为ATTOL( 自主出租车,起降飞机)的新系统,尽管该系统仍处于开发和测试阶段,但它却是一个非常有趣的系统,它的名字暗示了这一点,它可以起降并仅靠飞行员的最少投入就能自行降落。
Without going into the details, this is a system is powered by powerful on-board hardware that processes data from cameras and sensors around the plane and leverages developments in Computer Vision to do tasks such landing strip detection, lane detection, plane alignment and etc.
无需赘述,这是一个由强大的机载硬件提供动力的系统,该硬件可处理飞机周围摄像头和传感器的数据,并利用Computer Vision的发展来完成诸如降落跑道检测,车道检测,平面对齐等任务。
Compared to the previous approach ILS(Instrument Landing System) without a doubt this will allow pilots greater support and freedom to focus on the bigger mission and solving bigger problems, instead of being caught up in the technicalities of taking-off and landing. The pilot becomes the centre of operations.
与以前的方法ILS( 仪表着陆系统 )相比,毫无疑问,这将使飞行员有更多的支持和自由,可以专注于更大的任务并解决更大的问题,而不必陷入起飞和着陆的技术难题。 飞行员成为行动中心。
But I believe that this system is far from ready to be deployed and used regularly because Computer Vision still faces great problems such as adversarial examples which cause them to make mistakes, this is not counting the case where we have suboptimal weather and visibility conditions. Because usually these systems are trained on data that is biased with optimal conditions, such as great lighting, weather and etc.
但是我相信,由于Computer Vision仍然面临着诸如对抗性示例之类的严重问题,这些错误会导致他们犯错,因此该系统还没有准备好定期部署和使用,这还不包括我们的天气和能见度条件欠佳的情况。 因为通常这些系统是在有最佳条件(例如,大光照,天气等)的情况下对数据进行训练的。
Instrument Landing System(ILS)
仪表着陆系统
From my research, I found out that it is a ground-based landing system that requires a lot of hardware both on the ground and in the plane to allow both systems to interact and exchange data. It uses 2 antennas in landing strip(namely localizer and glideslope) to emit radio signals that are captured by the planes to give vertical and lateral position guidance of where the runway is and how to identify the centre. It is prone to have signal interference which can be caused by the signal from other airports nearby are emitting.
从我的研究中,我发现它是一个基于地面的着陆系统,在地面和飞机上都需要大量硬件,以允许这两个系统进行交互和交换数据。 它在着陆带中使用2根天线(即定位器和下滑道)来发射无线电信号,这些信号被飞机捕获,从而为跑道的位置以及如何识别中心提供垂直和横向位置指导。 容易受到附近其他机场发出的信号所引起的信号干扰。
In my opinion, ILS is a fairly complex system, besides being very technically challenging to pilots it also needs too much hardware and software to function.
在我看来,ILS是一个相当复杂的系统,除了在技术上对飞行员带来挑战外,它还需要太多的硬件和软件来运行。
Well compared to ILS, ATTOL seems much better although it needs more rigorous research and testing under various conditions to avoid disasters when it finally debuts in a commercial flight.
与ILS相比,ATTOL似乎要好得多,尽管它需要在各种条件下进行更严格的研究和测试,才能在商业航班首次亮相时避免灾难。
Airbus’ Long-Term Vision
空中客车的长期愿景
In their article, Airbus states that their goal is not to move ahead with autonomy as a target itself, which sounds and is great to hear if true, and I believe most companies can learn from them in this regard. Their main goal like many industry-leading companies is to address the challenges of tomorrow. But what are some of the challenges of tomorrow?
空中客车公司在其文章中指出,他们的目标不是将自主性作为目标本身,这听起来不错,而且很高兴听到这种说法是否属实,我相信大多数公司可以在这方面向他们学习。 与许多行业领先的公司一样,他们的主要目标是应对明天的挑战。 但是明天的挑战是什么?
- Air traffic management
空中交通管理
- Pilot shortage
飞行员短缺
- Enhancing Future Operations
增强未来运作
I was curious about why the pilot shortage was listed as one of the issues. So I looked into it, and found out that some of the reasons for the shortage are:
我很好奇为什么飞行员短缺被列为问题之一。 所以我调查了一下,发现造成短缺的一些原因是:
- Increased flying hours of commercial pilots
商业飞行员的飞行时间增加
- Ageing pilot workforce
飞行员队伍老化
- Fewer new pilots coming out of the military
从军方出来的新飞行员较少
- And a general decline of interest in the career.
并且对职业的兴趣普遍下降。
Life is full possibilities and there is no single outcome or solution to a problem. My question to you is: “Can we find other creative solutions to these issues besides the creation of completely autonomous vehicles?”
生活充满了可能性,没有单一的结果或解决方案。 我对您的问题是:“ 除了创造全自动驾驶汽车,我们还能找到其他解决这些问题的创造性方法吗? ”
汽车工业 (Auto industry)
Image credits图片学分
The auto industry is also moving towards automation.
汽车工业也正在朝着自动化发展。
According to this article, the auto industry plans to make 44% factories smart in the next 5 years and investments are set to increase by 60% in the next 3 years which will result in productivity gains estimated at $167 billion.
根据这篇文章 ,汽车行业计划在未来5年内使44%的工厂变得更聪明,并计划在未来3年内增加60%的投资,这将带来估计1,670亿美元的生产率提升。
If we only focus only on the gains we might be enticed to even bet on this kind of investment blindly. This kind of investment must be accompanied by equal or greater investment in re-skilling, skill development and creation of talent pool.
如果我们仅专注于收益,我们可能会被诱使盲目押注于这种投资。 这种投资必须在重新技能,技能开发和人才库的创造上投入同等或更多的投资。
There are some really great developments revolutionising many industries and the most successful implementations of cutting edge technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, robotics, automation and etc, are done in a symbiotic manner.
确实有一些伟大的发展彻底改变了许多行业,最先进的技术(例如人工智能,机器人技术,自动化等)的成功实施是共生的。
结论 (Conclusion)
There 3 key takeaways:
有3个关键要点:
- The goal of business is not to replace humans with machines and vice-versa.
商业的目标不是用机器代替人类,反之亦然。
- AI and Automation are not what makes your business successful, but it is the right implementation of these technologies done in a symbiotic manner that will contribute to it.
人工智能和自动化并不是使您的业务成功的因素,但以共生的方式正确实施这些技术将为它做出贡献。
- Investments in AI and automation must be accompanied by equal or greater investment in re-skilling, skill development and creation of talent pool.
在人工智能和自动化方面的投资必须与重新技能,技能开发和人才库的创造等额或更多投资相伴。
Thank you very much for reading, you are really amazing. I do this for you.
非常感谢您的阅读 ,您真的很棒。 我替你做
翻译自: https://medium.com/swlh/ai-a-take-over-or-symbiosis-c158b919e383
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